Media ShopTalk: December 2009
The end of another year and the last of our newsletters for 2009! Whilst we have attempted to send out a newsletter every week, there have been weeks where there hasn’t been anything relevant, important or contentious to send out!
This newsletter however covers a very important topic and one that this very contentious at the moment – the new TV universe changes and the affect of these changes.
The reason for us stating that this is contentious is that a number of Planners have found major differences between projected TV plans and actual results achieved for campaigns that have been planned from August 2009 to date. The reasons for these are as follows:-
Every six months, the TAMS universe changes to take into account a number of shifts in the market place. To date, the change in the universe has not had a major impact on how we plan TV schedules or on any results that are achieved in terms of post campaign analyses. The latest change however, in August 2009, has resulted in a number of changes and queries from the industry.
Just to confirm, the TAMS universe is made up by the total number of TV reporting households. The daily results of these homes are analysed and are then grossed up to be representative of the SA population. This means that the viewing habits that are captured on a daily basis can be classed as a standalone survey in its own right.
AC Nielsen have advised that it is impossible to change what has happened in the past, but they have given us guidelines for planning in the future:-
There are three key areas that have affected the overall results for TV bursts specifically planned utilising June and July historical viewing data:-
Area 1: The satellite results have run ahead of what was expected. The number of “no pay TV” reporting households was steadily declining due to the methodology used to estimate DSTV Compact viewership. The 2008 universe was the lowest ever, however reporting for DSTV Compact has been amended and as of the new August 2009 universe, the “no pay TV” universe has increased to a more robust level. This means that the universe is more reliable in terms of results projected for planning.
Area 2: It is believed that the content issue is more of a problem than the universe sizes! The number of programme repeats as well as the quality of local programming being produced may well be having an negative impact on TV viewership in general.
We have also gone through a lean period in terms of sport broadcasts. The number of sports programmes on schedule has generally declined in the past 12 months compared to previous years.
Area 3: There is a theory that in general, people are getting home later than they have been in past years. This is especially true for Gauteng viewers due to the major road works taking place around the province thanks to the Gautrain and to the World Cup. What used to take a commuter/motorist 40 minutes can now take anything from 60 to 90 minutes on a good day!
All three areas impact on our forecasting when doing a TV plan. Why? Based on actual viewing data across all TV stations, between 18h00 and 21h30 there is a drop off in ratings month on month from September through to November 2009. But the decline is not only seen in ratings, when one looks at the number of people (thousands) there is a general decline in viewers too!
The introduction and increase in DSTV Compact subscribers has impacted on viewing habits for programmes such as Generations. Whilst the DSTV ratings and audience are taken and added back into the SABC ratings and audience figures there is a definite change in viewing patterns.
The recommendation therefore is that any TV plan that has been done for August 2009 and beyond should be re-run utilising source data from August as the historical base.
This may all seem very confusing – but this is an example of how the new universe can affect a TV plan:-
· An initial TV plan, based on June/July viewing data and projected to October/November achieved a reach of 82% with a total of 590 AR’s. The universe was 1 442 000.
· The TV plan, re run utilising the August data achieved a reach of 73% with a total of 593 AR’s. The universe was 1 556 000.
· The post campaign for this burst reflected a reach of 74% with a total of 498 AR’s! This is almost 100 AR’s less – however when looking at the thousands reached, the numbers are very similar!
o The drop in AR’s can’t be explained at this point in time but it is recommended that one considers and analyses the numbers of people reached instead!!
So are we moving to a situation whereby we trade in Cost per Points (CPP’s) with the TV stations but report to clients in Cost per Thousands (CPT’s)? This may well be case, but at this point in time there are a number of other issues that need to sorted out.
And last but not least.... is there a Santa Claus?
(Original Author: Joseph A. Brendler, CPT, SC, Instructor, D/Physics]
No known species of reindeer can fly. BUT there are 300 000 species of living organisms yet to be classified, and while most of these are insects and germs, this does not COMPLETELY rule out flying reindeer which only Santa has ever seen.
There are 2 billion children in the world, BUT, since Santa doesn’t (appear) to handle the Muslim, Hindu, Jewish and Buddhist children, that reduces the workload to 15% to 91.8 million homes – presuming there’s at least one good child in each.
Santa has 31 hours of Christmas to work with, thanks to the different time zones and the rotation of the earth, assuming he travels east to west (which seems logical). This works out to 822.6 visits per second. This is to say that for each household with good children, Santa has 1/1000th of a second to park, hop out of the sleigh, jump down the chimney, fill the stockings, distribute the remaining presents under the tree, eat whatever snacks have been left, get back up the chimney, get back into the sleigh and move on. Assuming that each of these 91.8 million stops are evenly distributed around the earth (which, of course, we know to be false but for the purposes of our calculations we will accept), we are now talking about .78 miles per household, a total trip of 75.5 million miles!
This means that Santa’s sleigh is moving at 650 miles per second, 3 000 times that speed of sound. For purposes of comparison, the fastest man made vehicle on earth, the space probe, moves at a poky 27.4 miles per second – a conventional reindeer car run, tops, 15 miles per hour!
The payload on the sleigh adds another interesting element. Assuming that each child gets nothing more than a medium-sized Lego set, the sleight is caring 321 300 tons, not counting Santa, who is ... Granting that “flying reindeer” could pull x10 the normal amount, we cannot do the job... We need 214 200 reindeer.
353 000 tons travelling at 650 miles per second creates enormous air resistance – this will heat the reindeer up in the same fashion as spacecrafts re-entering the earth’s atmosphere. The lead pair of reindeer will absorb 14.3 QUINTILLION joules of energy. In short, they will burst into flame almost instantaneously, exposing the reindeer behind them, and create deafening sonic booms in their wake. The entire reindeer team will be vaporised within 4.26 thousandths of a second. Santa, meanwhile, will be subjected to centrifugal forces 17 500 times greater than gravity. A 250 pound Santa (which seems slim) would be pinned to the back of his sleigh by 4 315 015 pounds of force!
In conclusion – If Santa ever DID deliver presents on Christmas Eve, he’s dead now!
Wishing you and yours a peaceful, happy and safe festive season!
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